***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.9 10.6 1.7 82.3 76.0 5.7 6.4 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 7.2 7.8 9.9 1.4 80.2 74.2 5.6 6.4 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 9.4 9.9 10.4 1.5 81.7 75.8 7.9 8.5 9.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 4.8 5.5 7.9 1.7 85.3 78.6 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 6.6 7.3 8.6 1.7 85.0 78.7 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.5 6.6 1.7 86.8 79.6 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.7 10.0 1.6 81.6 75.5 5.7 6.3 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 2.2 2.7 6.5 1.5 82.2 75.9 0.7 1.3 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 7.5 8.1 8.6 1.5 82.2 76.1 5.9 6.6 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.6 7.1 1.5 82.0 75.8 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 6.7 7.3 7.9 1.5 83.6 77.3 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.4 7.3 1.6 84.1 77.7 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.8 7.0 1.6 83.3 76.9 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.9 8.2 1.3 79.2 72.9 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 7.2 7.8 9.1 1.6 84.9 78.4 5.8 6.4 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.2 7.5 1.6 84.1 77.7 6.1 6.7 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.7 9.6 1.5 80.5 74.4 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 6.0 6.5 6.5 1.4 81.3 75.0 4.5 5.2 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.6 9.9 1.4 79.4 73.5 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 2.8 3.3 5.2 1.4 78.9 73.2 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 7.1 7.7 9.8 1.6 83.2 77.1 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.8 9.5 1.3 79.3 73.4 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 6.9 7.3 9.8 1.3 78.7 72.8 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.1 8.1 1.4 81.0 74.8 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 7.7 8.3 9.7 1.8 84.2 77.6 6.0 6.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 6.5 7.1 6.8 1.6 84.7 78.3 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.6 10.2 1.8 83.9 77.6 5.9 6.8 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 5.7 6.4 8.1 1.7 84.8 78.3 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.9 5.9 1.3 78.3 72.5 3.9 4.6 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 7.5 8.0 10.2 1.5 80.6 74.6 6.0 6.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------