***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 22.6 23.8 21.6 3.1 85.1 82.4 18.9 20.4 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 22.7 23.4 21.2 2.5 80.0 77.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 23.0 24.0 21.8 2.9 82.6 80.2 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 16.6 18.6 19.1 3.9 88.9 86.5 11.9 13.7 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 23.2 24.4 20.6 3.3 85.1 82.5 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 10 90 100 22.9 24.7 19.6 3.8 88.5 84.6 18.8 20.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 22.3 23.1 21.0 2.5 80.6 78.3 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 13.2 14.1 18.9 2.9 82.4 79.7 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 23.4 24.5 21.4 3.2 85.0 82.5 19.3 20.8 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 22.9 24.1 20.0 3.4 85.7 83.0 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 23.4 24.6 21.2 3.3 84.9 82.4 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 22.8 23.8 19.8 2.8 81.4 78.8 18.8 20.5 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 23.6 24.3 20.6 2.6 80.6 77.7 19.9 21.4 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 23.5 24.5 20.9 2.9 81.6 79.2 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 22.6 23.9 21.5 3.6 87.2 85.1 18.7 20.2 21.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 24.1 25.2 20.6 3.1 83.5 80.8 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 22.1 22.9 20.6 2.5 80.5 78.0 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 22.1 23.0 19.1 3.0 82.4 79.9 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 22.6 23.4 21.5 2.6 80.6 78.3 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.3 16.9 2.2 76.4 73.8 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 23.1 24.3 22.0 3.3 85.8 83.2 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 22.9 23.7 20.8 2.5 81.5 78.7 19.3 20.8 22.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 23.0 23.8 21.7 2.7 81.2 78.7 19.4 20.9 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 23.3 24.3 21.0 3.1 83.0 80.6 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 22.2 23.3 20.8 3.3 86.2 83.4 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 23.0 23.7 19.0 2.3 78.8 75.4 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 22.7 23.8 21.1 3.1 85.2 82.3 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 23.1 25.0 20.4 3.9 89.0 86.6 18.6 20.3 21.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 18.0 18.7 18.2 2.5 78.2 75.8 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 22.4 23.1 21.3 2.5 80.1 77.8 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------