***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 20.0 20.8 20.0 2.4 75.8 71.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 20.1 20.5 19.8 2.1 73.1 68.7 16.7 18.3 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 20.4 20.9 20.3 2.3 74.4 69.7 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.8 17.7 3.1 82.8 76.9 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 20.4 21.2 19.0 2.7 77.7 72.6 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 20.3 21.5 18.2 3.3 82.1 76.4 15.8 17.7 19.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 19.7 20.2 19.6 2.1 73.2 69.0 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 11.5 12.5 18.3 3.0 79.8 73.9 7.2 9.0 10.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 20.5 21.1 19.7 2.6 76.4 71.5 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 20.1 21.0 18.9 3.0 79.1 73.4 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 20.5 21.1 19.6 2.7 77.0 72.1 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 20.0 20.7 18.9 2.8 77.8 72.5 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 20.5 21.0 18.9 2.4 74.3 70.0 16.7 18.5 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 20.9 21.6 19.6 2.6 75.7 70.3 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 19.5 20.4 19.2 3.0 82.5 77.6 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 21.1 21.8 19.0 2.6 76.9 72.0 17.2 18.9 20.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 19.6 20.1 19.4 2.1 73.4 68.8 16.1 17.8 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 19.4 20.2 18.5 3.0 78.8 72.7 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 20.0 20.5 20.1 2.2 73.6 68.9 16.6 18.2 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 17.1 18.1 16.8 2.9 79.3 73.0 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 20.4 21.0 20.2 2.6 77.1 71.9 16.6 18.2 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 20.4 21.0 19.7 2.3 75.1 69.8 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 20.3 20.8 20.4 2.3 74.1 69.0 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 20.8 21.5 19.7 2.7 76.4 71.0 16.8 18.6 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 19.6 20.3 18.9 2.5 77.5 72.2 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 20.1 20.7 18.1 2.4 75.6 70.8 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 20.1 20.8 19.5 2.4 76.0 71.1 16.5 18.2 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 20.1 21.3 18.6 3.2 83.2 77.7 16.3 17.8 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 16.0 16.8 17.9 2.9 77.8 71.9 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 19.8 20.2 19.8 2.1 73.0 68.7 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------