***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.0 16.4 16.7 0.6 57.2 54.8 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.3 16.6 0.5 56.1 54.0 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.9 17.0 0.6 56.3 54.2 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.5 10.8 14.8 1.0 61.7 58.2 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.5 15.6 0.8 59.0 56.3 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 17.9 17.3 14.7 1.1 61.7 58.3 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 16.5 0.5 56.2 54.0 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.1 15.1 1.0 60.5 57.6 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.8 16.1 0.9 59.3 56.4 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.3 15.6 1.1 60.9 57.7 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.7 15.8 0.8 58.8 56.3 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.4 15.6 0.8 58.3 56.2 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 15.5 18.0 15.1 0.7 57.7 55.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.4 17.2 16.1 0.6 56.1 54.1 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 13.6 16.3 15.4 1.0 61.7 58.2 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.5 18.6 15.5 0.8 59.0 56.5 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.8 15.9 16.4 0.6 57.0 54.5 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 13.7 16.4 15.4 1.0 59.8 57.0 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.4 16.8 0.5 56.1 54.0 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 14.4 13.5 1.0 60.3 57.8 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.7 17.3 16.6 0.8 58.5 55.8 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 14.1 16.6 16.5 0.7 57.9 55.1 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 14.3 16.6 17.1 0.5 55.8 53.8 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 14.8 17.5 16.2 0.7 57.5 55.2 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.8 16.4 15.3 0.8 59.1 56.2 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.5 15.0 0.6 57.2 55.6 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.4 17.0 16.2 0.7 58.2 55.5 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.5 16.8 15.2 1.1 62.3 58.7 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 13.4 14.7 0.9 59.0 56.8 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.3 16.6 0.5 55.6 53.8 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------