***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 18.5 19.0 18.4 1.7 77.7 71.7 16.4 17.3 18.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 18.3 18.6 18.2 1.5 74.0 68.5 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 18.8 19.2 18.7 1.6 75.7 70.1 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 12.2 13.2 16.2 2.3 84.7 77.6 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 18.9 19.6 17.3 1.9 80.0 73.2 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 18.5 19.5 16.4 2.3 85.1 77.0 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.4 18.0 1.5 74.6 68.9 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.5 16.4 1.9 79.8 72.4 8.1 8.9 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 19.1 19.7 17.9 1.9 79.1 72.5 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 18.7 19.4 17.1 2.1 81.2 73.8 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.8 17.7 1.9 79.2 72.6 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 18.6 19.1 17.1 1.7 77.3 70.6 16.6 17.5 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 19.2 19.6 17.0 1.6 75.5 69.3 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 19.2 19.6 17.8 1.6 75.5 69.5 17.2 18.1 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.5 17.5 2.2 83.7 77.5 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 19.8 20.4 17.2 1.8 78.8 72.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.8 18.1 17.8 1.5 75.4 69.3 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.9 18.5 16.6 1.9 79.0 71.9 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 18.4 18.7 18.4 1.5 74.3 68.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.3 15.8 14.7 1.7 77.1 69.9 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 18.9 19.5 18.5 1.9 79.7 73.0 16.8 17.7 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 18.6 19.0 18.0 1.6 76.6 70.2 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 18.6 18.9 18.7 1.5 74.3 68.8 16.8 17.6 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 19.1 19.7 17.9 1.8 77.2 70.9 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 18.1 18.7 17.2 1.9 80.3 73.6 16.2 17.1 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 18.7 19.1 16.3 1.5 74.7 68.4 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 18.7 19.1 17.9 1.7 78.6 72.1 16.7 17.5 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 18.3 19.3 17.0 2.4 85.1 78.2 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.9 15.9 1.7 76.4 69.8 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 18.2 18.4 18.2 1.4 73.5 68.4 16.4 17.2 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------