***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 12.4 16.0 20.1 151.8 77.7 66.3 2.6 5.7 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 14.5 17.4 17.4 147.6 76.7 66.9 4.1 7.7 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.0 13.6 15.3 119.0 70.1 57.4 3.3 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.3 16.4 18.6 115.0 69.1 58.6 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.3 12.1 16.4 119.6 70.1 55.4 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.1 13.8 17.5 115.5 69.3 60.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 14.0 18.8 21.0 174.7 81.6 71.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.6 14.8 87.8 58.4 47.9 6.3 10.8 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.9 14.5 105.3 65.7 51.2 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.5 13.5 84.7 57.1 45.5 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.1 15.0 107.8 66.1 52.5 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.8 11.6 15.8 108.3 66.5 54.3 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 9.2 14.0 17.2 117.3 69.6 59.9 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.4 12.1 12.2 79.0 55.0 48.2 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.0 10.3 16.9 109.2 68.0 58.6 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.0 12.8 17.8 123.1 71.2 60.2 2.5 5.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.3 15.3 19.0 164.1 80.0 70.4 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.5 13.3 76.4 53.2 43.4 4.0 8.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 14.8 16.0 15.1 126.9 72.0 62.3 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.4 12.4 15.1 79.9 53.9 45.4 5.8 10.9 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.6 13.2 15.0 111.6 68.0 53.9 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.2 15.1 16.1 135.4 74.2 64.8 2.8 6.1 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.6 12.6 13.5 110.4 67.2 58.1 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.4 12.0 80.4 56.2 46.1 3.9 8.3 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.8 15.9 19.9 137.9 74.8 63.3 4.7 8.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 14.9 20.2 23.0 168.2 80.8 69.4 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.2 16.4 22.2 161.1 79.2 68.6 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.3 8.5 15.9 104.8 66.4 56.5 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 13.9 13.8 75.7 52.6 43.8 7.2 12.8 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 12.1 14.8 17.7 145.7 76.4 66.0 3.8 6.8 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------