***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.4 7.0 11.5 99.7 64.9 46.9 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 7.8 11.6 98.2 64.3 48.1 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.5 8.4 11.6 97.8 63.8 46.3 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.3 10.1 11.0 81.1 58.4 39.4 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.5 8.6 10.2 83.0 57.8 38.1 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 2.9 7.0 8.0 61.1 47.7 31.9 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.3 7.4 12.0 103.9 66.3 49.8 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.0 13.4 11.5 83.5 57.5 40.0 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.8 11.1 92.1 61.5 43.2 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.4 12.2 11.8 88.3 59.6 42.6 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.1 10.6 83.6 57.5 39.6 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.9 8.7 10.6 83.0 57.4 38.2 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.8 10.0 10.6 82.2 57.4 40.8 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.4 13.5 13.4 92.3 60.9 42.8 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.5 10.3 71.3 55.4 40.1 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.6 9.7 76.8 55.2 37.6 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.0 11.7 96.0 63.8 48.0 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.8 12.8 92.6 60.6 43.5 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.0 11.7 97.8 64.0 48.1 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.2 17.3 100.2 63.2 49.2 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.9 9.3 11.4 97.3 63.4 46.0 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.2 12.1 97.1 64.0 48.8 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 8.4 11.2 92.2 61.7 45.1 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.4 11.4 12.5 95.3 61.8 44.7 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.0 12.8 98.6 63.8 47.0 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.3 7.1 9.3 65.4 48.4 33.1 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.4 12.4 100.9 64.9 48.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.1 9.4 70.7 54.5 38.7 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.5 16.2 13.7 92.7 60.2 44.1 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 7.8 11.8 100.9 65.2 47.2 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------