***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.2 17.8 13.1 119.3 70.6 52.2 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 16.0 12.9 127.5 72.4 52.7 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 16.4 12.0 111.2 68.2 49.6 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.9 13.9 12.5 96.9 64.6 47.1 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.1 91.7 62.2 44.6 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.2 13.0 103.0 66.2 49.6 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.3 12.3 12.3 120.1 70.6 51.1 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.0 15.8 12.6 99.6 64.7 47.7 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.5 11.5 94.8 63.1 45.5 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.8 14.2 12.6 97.4 63.9 47.0 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.3 10.9 96.3 64.0 46.0 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.4 11.3 101.3 65.5 47.7 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.5 11.6 12.6 104.4 66.4 48.9 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.9 21.6 14.0 103.1 65.8 49.3 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.7 13.9 106.3 67.7 48.2 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.6 11.4 98.5 64.7 47.1 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.9 11.6 11.9 115.9 69.5 52.0 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 12.0 13.4 98.0 63.8 48.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 21.6 13.0 127.7 72.4 52.9 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.9 13.9 14.9 93.3 61.7 46.9 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.5 11.5 99.3 64.8 47.1 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.5 16.6 13.0 120.3 70.6 52.4 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.6 20.7 12.8 122.4 71.1 52.0 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.0 17.6 13.0 102.5 65.5 48.9 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.1 14.7 13.0 103.0 65.9 49.8 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.9 13.1 104.2 66.8 47.9 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.3 15.4 13.4 115.7 69.6 52.3 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 10.9 12.3 100.4 65.8 47.2 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 5.5 15.6 13.3 93.7 61.9 46.5 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.9 18.2 13.3 128.9 72.8 52.8 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------