***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.2 7.3 11.3 96.3 63.7 48.4 2.2 4.5 7.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 7.1 10.8 99.3 64.9 49.9 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.1 11.7 99.2 64.7 50.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.9 11.8 88.7 61.8 45.8 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.3 11.8 91.1 62.0 46.8 2.7 5.1 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.4 11.5 89.0 61.1 47.4 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.4 10.7 98.6 64.7 48.6 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.1 12.8 92.0 61.3 47.7 2.7 5.5 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.0 96.8 63.9 48.1 2.9 5.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.2 13.7 95.6 62.7 48.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.0 11.5 91.9 62.1 47.4 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.8 11.2 91.9 61.9 47.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.5 6.7 11.7 92.9 62.3 48.5 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.2 15.0 100.2 64.3 51.3 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.8 5.2 11.1 83.2 60.4 43.2 1.5 3.5 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.7 11.0 90.1 61.5 47.5 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.5 9.0 11.0 97.9 64.6 49.6 2.8 5.6 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.0 14.7 97.8 63.0 50.6 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.8 11.0 99.3 65.0 50.7 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.7 16.0 89.7 59.7 48.4 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.3 7.3 11.9 96.4 64.0 48.7 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.6 12.2 100.1 65.4 51.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.6 11.6 99.5 64.9 50.9 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.6 14.1 102.7 65.2 51.9 3.1 6.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.4 12.0 92.7 62.9 47.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.2 7.2 12.2 97.4 64.2 47.9 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.0 11.6 95.3 63.2 47.9 1.9 3.9 6.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.5 6.2 11.2 86.4 61.0 45.0 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.0 15.0 94.9 61.6 50.3 5.4 9.4 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.0 6.7 11.1 99.1 64.7 49.6 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------