***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 01.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 34.3 47.4 55.9 118.0 68.2 60.0 17.8 29.5 44.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 35.4 47.1 52.8 118.1 68.3 60.9 18.5 30.0 44.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 39.9 46.6 50.5 107.0 63.3 54.8 20.6 33.4 49.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 48.6 46.9 54.0 96.3 57.4 51.0 24.3 39.3 57.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 39.7 38.6 49.5 96.9 57.6 49.6 20.2 32.1 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 37.5 34.6 50.0 92.9 54.5 50.4 18.8 30.7 46.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 32.0 45.1 56.0 125.5 71.2 63.5 17.6 27.7 40.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 54.0 46.3 51.7 90.2 51.5 46.3 28.9 44.6 64.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 40.3 39.5 50.2 97.6 57.7 49.9 21.1 33.0 47.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 29.1 43.4 51.6 91.0 52.2 46.3 29.0 41.6 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 37.8 35.6 48.0 94.9 55.8 49.1 19.5 30.9 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 36.5 35.4 48.8 96.4 56.5 50.4 17.9 29.9 44.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 39.4 40.5 52.1 99.7 58.8 53.3 19.7 32.2 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 35.1 57.3 54.6 93.2 54.0 47.4 34.2 52.7 75.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 33.6 32.5 52.2 92.8 56.5 50.4 15.0 26.9 42.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 35.2 35.1 49.8 98.2 57.9 52.2 16.9 28.3 43.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 32.3 42.4 53.6 118.5 68.5 61.7 17.2 27.2 40.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 50.5 43.0 54.1 90.4 51.3 45.8 27.8 41.9 58.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 44.8 54.6 50.8 112.6 65.8 58.3 23.7 37.6 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 33.3 47.7 63.4 90.0 50.2 46.2 33.2 47.4 63.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 41.1 43.3 49.8 101.5 60.3 51.7 21.6 34.0 49.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.6 48.3 53.4 112.8 65.9 58.7 22.8 34.5 48.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.0 48.9 49.1 105.5 62.2 54.6 22.2 36.2 53.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 52.2 48.8 51.7 94.7 55.4 48.3 26.3 42.7 63.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 36.9 45.0 57.8 108.9 64.1 56.0 18.0 31.0 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 40.5 45.9 57.5 108.5 63.5 57.1 20.8 33.0 48.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 32.5 45.5 59.5 119.7 68.9 60.9 17.3 28.4 42.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 33.6 31.2 48.8 91.1 54.8 49.4 17.5 27.8 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 40.9 58.1 55.9 88.5 49.4 44.6 42.2 58.9 78.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 34.8 47.1 53.8 118.9 68.6 60.7 17.8 29.2 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------