***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.9 9.7 -0.6 40.5 43.2 7.3 8.7 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.0 9.4 -0.6 40.1 43.0 7.5 8.7 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.0 9.5 -0.6 39.8 42.7 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 4.3 3.9 5.7 -2.0 18.3 23.2 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 5.8 5.3 6.3 -1.8 19.8 24.9 6.5 7.9 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 5.5 5.1 4.8 -1.6 20.5 24.7 6.0 7.2 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.9 9.1 -0.8 36.4 40.1 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.3 5.7 -0.9 34.0 37.8 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 7.2 6.8 7.0 -1.6 20.9 26.1 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.2 7.0 6.0 -1.2 28.4 33.0 7.4 8.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.4 6.0 6.2 -1.6 21.6 26.2 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.4 5.6 6.1 -1.2 28.5 32.6 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 5.8 5.3 5.4 -1.7 18.7 23.8 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.0 7.7 -0.9 34.4 38.1 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 7.4 6.8 6.9 -2.2 15.1 20.7 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 7.1 6.4 5.6 -1.9 17.0 22.2 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.6 8.4 9.1 -0.6 40.6 43.4 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.3 5.4 -1.0 31.8 35.7 6.3 7.5 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.2 9.5 -0.5 41.0 43.7 7.6 8.7 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.1 4.3 -0.6 39.7 42.2 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.6 8.5 -1.1 30.1 34.4 6.9 8.1 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.5 7.2 9.2 -0.7 38.4 41.8 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.7 9.3 -0.5 40.3 43.1 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.4 7.1 7.4 -0.9 34.2 37.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.2 7.6 8.1 -1.0 32.8 36.7 7.6 8.8 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 6.4 6.3 5.6 -1.4 25.7 30.0 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 6.9 7.5 8.5 -1.0 33.9 37.8 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 5.5 4.8 6.0 -2.2 15.0 20.4 6.2 7.3 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 6.0 5.1 -0.7 36.6 39.4 5.7 6.8 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 7.5 8.3 9.5 -0.6 39.2 42.3 7.8 9.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------