***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 8.1 7.5 9.7 0.9 63.8 61.1 4.9 6.4 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 8.0 7.9 9.7 1.1 68.7 64.2 4.8 6.3 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.1 9.7 9.5 0.9 65.4 62.7 7.4 8.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.4 6.8 0.5 58.5 58.0 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 7.2 6.5 7.1 0.7 62.0 60.5 4.1 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 6.3 5.7 5.7 0.7 61.4 60.3 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.6 9.6 1.1 68.3 63.8 5.0 6.3 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 2.9 2.3 6.1 0.7 62.3 61.1 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.6 7.7 0.8 64.0 61.6 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 7.7 7.2 6.5 0.8 63.8 62.0 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.6 6.8 0.7 61.9 60.8 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.3 5.6 6.5 0.6 60.1 59.3 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.2 6.1 0.7 61.6 60.4 3.9 5.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 8.4 8.3 8.3 1.3 71.5 67.4 5.6 6.8 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.7 7.0 0.3 55.0 55.2 5.4 6.4 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.5 6.4 0.6 60.3 59.5 5.5 6.7 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 7.7 7.9 9.6 1.4 72.5 66.3 5.0 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.3 6.2 1.0 66.0 63.6 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 8.0 7.9 9.7 1.2 69.2 64.9 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 3.4 3.1 5.2 1.0 67.0 64.6 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 7.9 7.3 8.7 0.8 63.7 61.3 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 7.2 7.4 9.7 1.5 74.7 68.2 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 7.9 7.7 9.4 1.2 69.7 65.8 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 7.2 7.0 7.8 1.0 67.3 64.5 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 8.4 7.6 7.8 0.7 61.3 59.7 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.3 6.5 0.7 61.8 60.4 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 8.9 8.1 8.8 0.8 63.8 61.1 4.8 6.6 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.2 6.9 0.4 57.2 57.0 3.6 4.7 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.0 5.9 1.1 67.7 65.1 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.0 9.7 1.0 66.7 63.1 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------