***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 21.0 20.3 17.9 -0.1 49.2 49.1 18.9 20.3 21.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 21.0 21.1 18.5 0.6 57.3 55.7 19.1 20.5 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.2 18.5 0.5 56.1 54.9 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.5 14.5 -0.9 38.9 40.7 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.3 20.7 16.5 0.0 50.5 50.7 19.2 20.7 22.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.6 14.6 -0.6 43.2 45.5 18.6 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 20.7 20.5 18.3 0.3 54.4 53.5 18.8 20.1 21.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.8 16.0 0.8 59.3 58.7 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 21.3 21.2 17.8 0.5 55.4 54.7 19.2 20.8 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.9 21.2 16.9 0.9 59.9 58.7 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 21.4 21.0 16.6 0.3 53.0 53.0 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.0 20.7 16.2 0.3 54.0 54.3 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.2 16.3 0.0 50.1 51.2 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 22.8 23.0 19.1 1.9 71.0 67.2 19.5 21.1 22.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 18.1 18.6 15.5 -1.4 32.9 35.6 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.5 16.2 -0.1 48.9 49.8 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 20.4 20.7 18.4 0.8 60.3 58.1 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 21.1 21.0 17.0 1.5 66.6 64.3 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 20.9 21.2 18.8 0.9 60.5 58.3 18.9 20.4 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.2 15.4 1.6 67.4 65.6 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.9 18.1 0.3 53.4 52.8 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 21.1 21.9 18.9 1.3 65.8 62.5 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.2 21.9 19.2 1.2 64.7 61.9 19.3 20.7 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.4 22.2 18.5 1.5 66.4 63.6 19.3 20.8 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.7 16.4 -0.3 46.0 46.5 18.8 20.0 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.5 20.5 15.3 -0.4 44.4 46.7 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.9 20.4 17.4 0.0 49.6 49.5 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 18.0 18.9 15.1 -1.1 36.9 39.2 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 17.7 17.7 16.7 1.8 69.5 67.0 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.6 18.4 0.4 54.6 53.6 18.9 20.2 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------