***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.4 16.1 0.5 56.1 55.4 14.2 15.8 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.5 16.2 0.6 57.4 56.5 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.0 16.3 0.6 56.8 56.0 14.7 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.1 10.3 14.3 0.7 57.7 56.8 7.8 9.5 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.1 14.8 0.6 56.5 55.8 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.8 13.9 0.7 58.1 56.7 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.3 16.0 0.5 56.5 55.8 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.6 14.1 0.6 56.7 56.0 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.4 15.3 0.5 56.0 55.4 15.1 16.8 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.8 14.6 0.6 56.4 55.8 14.6 16.2 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.4 14.6 0.5 56.1 55.6 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.1 16.9 14.5 0.4 54.9 54.7 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.5 14.2 0.4 54.0 53.9 15.4 17.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.4 15.7 0.7 57.9 56.8 14.7 16.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 15.6 15.9 14.5 0.7 59.2 58.1 13.8 15.2 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.1 14.4 0.5 55.6 55.2 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.9 16.1 15.9 0.7 58.5 57.3 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.0 14.5 0.7 57.0 56.2 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.7 16.4 0.7 58.2 57.0 14.2 15.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.1 12.8 0.8 58.9 57.6 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.0 15.8 0.5 55.8 55.3 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.9 16.2 0.9 60.0 58.4 14.3 16.0 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.0 16.5 0.8 58.7 57.3 14.4 16.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.5 15.6 0.7 57.1 56.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 14.8 0.6 57.2 56.3 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 14.1 0.3 53.7 53.4 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.8 15.6 0.6 56.9 56.0 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 15.9 16.2 14.5 0.7 57.9 57.0 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.1 13.8 0.7 57.6 56.6 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.4 16.2 0.6 56.7 55.9 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------