***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.1 13.4 -0.6 42.7 44.6 13.1 14.9 16.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.1 13.9 13.4 -0.6 43.2 44.6 13.0 14.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 16.0 14.7 13.6 -0.5 43.7 45.4 13.5 15.3 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.3 11.6 -0.4 44.9 47.3 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.0 14.7 12.0 -0.5 44.1 46.4 13.5 15.3 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.1 11.1 -0.5 43.9 46.7 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.9 13.5 13.2 -0.6 42.1 43.7 12.6 14.2 15.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.0 11.3 -0.5 43.9 46.4 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 16.2 14.9 12.6 -0.6 43.6 45.8 13.7 15.5 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.8 14.5 11.8 -0.6 43.7 46.0 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 16.2 14.9 11.9 -0.5 43.9 46.3 13.6 15.6 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 15.9 14.4 11.8 -0.6 43.0 45.8 13.2 15.2 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.3 14.7 11.5 -0.7 41.5 44.8 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.3 14.9 12.9 -0.5 44.9 46.4 13.5 15.6 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.8 13.8 11.7 -0.3 45.9 48.3 12.5 14.2 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 16.9 15.5 11.7 -0.6 43.3 46.0 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.2 13.1 -0.5 43.5 44.8 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 13.6 11.6 -0.6 43.5 45.7 12.3 14.3 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.3 14.1 13.6 -0.5 44.2 45.5 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 11.8 9.9 -0.6 43.8 46.2 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.9 14.6 13.1 -0.6 43.3 45.4 13.6 15.3 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.0 13.4 -0.4 45.7 46.6 12.7 14.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.3 13.7 -0.4 45.1 46.3 13.1 14.8 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.3 15.0 12.8 -0.5 44.1 45.8 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.1 13.8 12.1 -0.6 43.3 45.6 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.2 11.4 -0.8 40.8 44.6 13.4 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.3 12.8 -0.6 42.7 44.7 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.1 11.8 -0.4 45.4 47.9 12.7 14.6 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 10.7 10.9 -0.6 43.4 45.7 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 15.1 13.8 13.5 -0.6 42.9 44.5 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------