***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.5 16.5 0.3 55.9 55.1 16.2 17.1 18.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 17.6 16.6 0.6 59.7 58.3 16.3 17.1 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.1 16.8 0.6 60.1 58.4 16.6 17.6 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.9 14.2 0.2 53.6 53.0 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 15.1 0.5 58.2 56.5 16.6 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.4 13.9 0.4 56.4 54.8 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.2 16.4 0.4 57.3 56.3 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.5 14.5 0.7 62.7 60.2 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.3 15.9 0.6 60.2 58.2 16.8 17.8 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.0 15.1 0.7 62.6 60.2 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.3 15.1 0.5 59.3 57.3 16.7 17.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.8 14.9 0.5 58.9 57.1 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.3 14.6 0.3 55.7 54.6 17.0 18.0 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 19.0 19.0 16.5 1.2 68.8 65.5 16.9 17.9 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.6 14.5 0.1 51.5 51.4 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.8 18.9 14.7 0.4 56.7 55.3 17.5 18.5 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.8 17.1 16.4 0.7 61.5 59.7 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 17.6 17.5 15.0 1.0 66.1 63.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.8 16.9 0.7 62.4 60.4 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.1 13.3 1.0 67.3 64.3 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 16.3 0.5 58.6 57.0 16.6 17.6 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 18.2 18.0 16.7 0.9 65.9 63.2 16.3 17.2 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 18.3 18.2 17.1 0.9 65.6 62.8 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 18.9 18.8 16.2 1.0 66.0 63.1 16.8 17.8 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.1 15.1 0.3 55.6 54.8 16.0 16.8 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.8 14.3 0.2 52.9 52.5 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.7 15.9 0.4 56.4 55.5 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.1 14.5 0.2 53.0 52.4 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.3 14.3 14.5 1.1 67.7 64.6 12.2 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.4 16.7 0.5 58.3 57.1 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------