***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 1.6 1.4 3.7 23.4 24.0 18.9 2.5 5.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.5 2.7 16.8 17.3 14.7 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.5 3.5 20.6 20.4 15.9 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 87 13 0 100 3.1 5.3 7.2 36.7 32.1 21.2 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 87 13 0 100 2.2 2.8 5.9 32.1 26.2 19.0 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 2.8 4.3 7.9 39.4 33.8 24.3 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 87 13 0 100 1.8 1.3 2.7 16.9 17.6 14.7 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 5.2 6.0 7.2 37.7 26.2 20.8 7.8 13.2 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 2.4 2.4 5.2 28.8 22.7 17.0 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 2.4 2.2 6.1 31.7 22.5 18.2 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 2.0 2.4 5.9 33.3 27.3 19.6 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.8 6.8 37.9 29.9 21.9 3.4 7.5 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 2.9 3.8 6.9 36.0 30.1 21.8 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 2.5 1.0 3.5 16.6 12.7 11.5 5.2 11.2 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.9 3.9 8.2 39.2 36.7 24.7 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 1.8 2.4 6.4 34.4 28.9 20.4 3.1 6.8 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 1.5 1.1 2.6 16.9 17.7 14.6 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 2.4 1.7 5.7 26.9 18.1 15.7 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 2.2 1.2 2.7 16.4 16.3 14.1 3.9 8.5 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.5 2.9 7.3 32.0 18.7 17.2 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 2.5 2.6 4.7 27.4 24.1 17.6 4.3 8.6 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.5 2.3 13.7 12.8 11.1 2.7 6.2 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 2.3 1.3 3.0 16.4 16.2 13.9 4.2 8.4 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 1.9 1.3 4.5 22.5 17.1 14.6 4.2 9.0 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 2.5 2.6 4.6 25.9 23.8 18.3 4.1 8.2 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.4 4.1 7.5 38.4 31.7 23.1 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.7 1.4 3.7 22.2 22.2 18.1 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.7 3.4 7.8 38.9 35.1 23.0 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 88 12 0 100 4.4 3.2 5.8 27.0 17.0 15.2 7.9 14.6 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 84 16 0 100 2.2 1.4 2.7 16.5 17.5 14.4 3.6 7.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------