***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.0 77.2 58.5 41.8 3.0 7.1 13.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.8 7.9 80.8 59.2 43.2 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.6 12.1 7.9 88.9 61.7 44.7 3.5 7.8 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.9 9.6 95.5 64.9 43.8 3.4 7.3 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.1 9.5 107.9 67.9 47.3 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.2 10.2 11.9 114.8 69.6 45.0 2.1 4.8 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.2 7.8 77.8 58.2 42.3 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.3 18.4 11.2 123.6 71.3 50.2 5.1 9.5 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.5 9.4 110.7 68.1 48.2 3.6 7.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.1 16.8 11.0 120.5 70.6 51.2 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.5 13.0 9.3 119.9 70.8 48.2 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.5 9.4 120.4 70.8 47.2 3.1 5.9 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.0 11.8 10.4 113.6 69.1 44.9 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.1 19.9 10.4 97.7 64.4 48.5 5.8 11.8 21.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.8 9.4 10.2 90.5 63.4 42.7 2.3 5.4 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.8 10.5 9.3 110.4 68.5 45.4 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.2 8.0 78.2 58.2 41.9 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.8 14.0 12.3 114.0 68.8 53.1 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.3 8.0 85.9 60.6 43.9 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 17.4 16.2 116.3 69.2 52.5 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.9 7.9 95.4 64.1 45.5 3.6 7.7 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.3 7.9 78.9 58.2 42.6 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.4 8.4 92.9 62.7 44.8 3.5 8.1 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.8 16.5 10.3 103.9 66.2 50.5 3.3 8.2 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.5 8.5 82.1 60.7 43.6 2.6 6.6 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.1 12.4 9.6 104.5 66.6 41.3 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.2 7.9 77.8 58.7 42.3 2.9 6.6 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.7 9.5 9.9 98.8 65.7 43.2 2.5 5.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 19.9 13.5 114.8 69.0 53.4 5.9 11.0 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.6 7.7 80.8 59.3 43.1 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------