***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9.6 8.5 9.7 107.8 67.6 54.3 2.4 4.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.7 9.5 109.9 68.4 52.5 2.0 4.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.1 10.3 117.9 70.3 56.6 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.0 12.0 114.4 69.2 52.5 2.9 5.4 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.6 12.5 128.4 72.8 55.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.0 13.4 114.6 69.5 51.8 2.2 3.9 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.4 9.3 107.1 67.3 51.0 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.4 13.8 14.0 132.7 73.9 56.3 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.5 10.8 13.0 136.3 74.6 57.4 2.9 5.2 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 3.8 13.1 13.9 135.6 74.4 57.2 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 6.4 10.2 12.2 134.6 74.2 55.4 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 10.8 12.1 132.0 73.8 55.5 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.7 12.7 124.3 71.9 54.3 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.3 15.4 12.6 121.4 70.9 56.6 3.9 7.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.0 6.6 11.4 104.0 66.2 50.2 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.3 8.7 12.0 123.9 71.8 53.9 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.7 9.2 107.1 67.4 49.1 2.1 4.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.4 14.6 129.9 73.0 57.4 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.9 9.8 113.9 69.6 54.3 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.3 18.0 124.1 71.7 55.6 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.0 10.9 11.7 129.0 73.0 57.1 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 7.7 10.5 9.9 113.8 69.4 52.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.1 10.2 118.0 70.5 55.7 3.1 5.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 13.7 14.0 12.6 125.1 71.8 57.5 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.1 111.1 68.5 53.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.7 12.5 122.6 71.8 53.5 2.1 4.2 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 8.2 7.1 10.2 105.0 66.8 53.6 2.2 4.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.8 8.0 12.0 113.5 69.0 51.9 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.5 16.7 15.5 124.8 71.8 56.7 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.6 9.5 109.2 68.2 53.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------