***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 17.8 21.4 25.8 57.9 37.3 34.3 18.6 30.5 45.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 18.7 20.5 27.1 59.6 35.1 32.7 19.0 30.3 44.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 19.7 22.7 27.3 59.8 36.0 33.8 20.7 33.6 50.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 23.4 30.5 34.8 65.3 40.5 36.4 24.5 38.9 57.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 21.0 26.5 33.9 67.6 40.3 36.5 21.7 33.3 47.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 18.5 24.2 41.1 72.6 42.6 38.7 18.1 29.7 44.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 17.9 19.5 26.8 59.0 35.9 33.0 18.1 27.9 39.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 30.5 38.0 39.1 74.2 42.2 38.9 29.8 45.3 64.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 21.3 26.1 33.3 67.4 40.0 36.7 21.7 33.3 47.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 29.6 34.5 37.4 70.5 40.1 37.4 29.6 42.0 56.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.6 26.2 33.0 70.4 42.8 38.5 20.0 31.4 45.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 36.5 23.1 33.9 72.5 43.0 39.2 16.3 28.3 43.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 19.3 25.3 36.3 70.7 41.1 37.6 19.9 32.2 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 33.0 33.5 33.4 59.9 31.0 30.8 35.7 54.1 76.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 14.7 20.6 36.9 64.5 40.8 36.5 15.6 27.2 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 16.5 20.9 33.8 68.5 40.3 36.7 16.4 27.5 42.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.9 19.7 28.1 62.6 37.3 33.9 17.4 27.3 39.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 30.4 32.9 39.7 67.9 35.9 34.8 30.8 43.9 59.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 23.5 25.8 27.2 59.9 34.7 32.6 24.6 38.2 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 34.8 41.2 52.0 74.9 40.0 37.2 36.1 49.2 64.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 23.6 28.9 29.8 64.2 39.5 36.2 24.4 36.5 50.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.8 24.4 28.1 60.6 34.5 31.8 23.3 34.4 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 22.1 25.4 28.1 60.1 34.7 33.0 24.0 37.9 54.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 29.6 30.9 34.0 63.3 34.1 33.3 29.9 45.2 64.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 18.0 22.1 30.8 60.7 37.8 34.4 18.7 31.9 48.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.8 26.9 35.8 69.5 41.3 37.4 21.4 33.1 47.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 18.4 21.2 28.2 58.1 36.5 33.5 19.3 30.1 43.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 16.8 22.2 36.1 66.6 41.4 37.2 17.7 27.6 40.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 43.0 46.8 42.6 68.8 36.0 35.0 44.1 60.1 78.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 17.5 19.3 26.0 57.3 34.3 32.0 18.7 30.1 44.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------