***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 9999.0 6.3 7.6 -2.9 9.7 15.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 85 15 0 100 6.1 4.8 7.3 -2.9 9.3 14.4 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 8.5 7.9 8.1 -2.2 15.0 21.2 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 3.7 2.7 5.6 -2.5 9.4 12.6 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 5.2 4.1 6.1 -2.4 11.1 16.5 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 4.8 4.3 4.6 -2.0 13.6 17.8 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 6.2 4.7 6.8 -3.4 6.3 10.3 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.2 6.1 -0.8 34.9 38.4 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 6.7 5.5 6.5 -2.4 10.0 17.2 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 6.8 6.7 6.1 -1.5 23.4 29.2 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 81 19 0 100 6.0 5.3 6.1 -2.0 14.3 20.2 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.1 -1.4 24.5 29.0 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 5.4 4.4 5.1 -2.3 10.9 17.6 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 7.2 7.0 7.4 -1.6 22.0 28.0 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 7.0 5.3 6.1 -3.3 2.7 5.4 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 6.6 5.6 5.4 -2.3 9.5 15.4 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 6.7 5.6 6.8 -3.0 9.1 13.5 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 5.8 5.9 5.6 -1.3 26.5 32.9 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 6.4 5.6 7.7 -2.5 12.8 18.4 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.1 4.6 -0.5 41.6 44.1 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 5.7 4.6 7.6 -2.4 12.2 18.8 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 5.6 4.6 7.2 -2.7 10.8 15.8 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 6.1 5.7 8.0 -1.9 17.5 23.3 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 6.3 6.0 7.0 -1.6 21.0 27.7 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 6.2 5.3 7.0 -2.6 12.7 17.4 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.7 -1.4 24.7 28.6 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 89 11 0 100 5.3 3.3 6.7 -3.3 7.3 12.1 6.9 8.4 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 5.1 3.9 5.8 -2.7 6.4 9.7 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 5.2 5.8 5.5 -0.7 36.4 40.3 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 86 14 0 100 6.3 5.0 7.5 -2.9 9.4 14.5 7.5 8.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------