***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 2.6 6.4 -2.8 15.9 22.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 3.7 3.3 6.4 -2.4 19.0 25.0 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 6.2 5.7 6.3 -2.5 17.0 23.5 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 1.3 0.4 4.1 -2.9 12.3 18.6 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 2.4 1.6 4.2 -2.9 12.8 19.3 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 2.1 1.4 2.8 -2.7 14.6 21.4 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 3.7 3.5 6.3 -2.5 18.4 24.1 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 -1.8 -2.4 3.3 -2.5 16.7 23.4 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 89 11 0 100 3.6 2.9 4.7 -2.9 13.0 19.8 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.9 3.6 -2.8 14.4 21.2 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 3.1 2.4 4.0 -2.7 14.2 20.8 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 2.0 1.4 3.7 -2.6 15.1 21.9 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 2.4 1.5 3.0 -2.9 13.1 20.2 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 4.4 4.2 5.2 -2.2 19.8 26.3 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.1 4.6 -2.8 11.8 18.0 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.2 3.5 -2.9 13.1 19.8 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 4.1 3.8 6.2 -2.3 20.5 26.1 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 2.5 2.1 3.2 -2.6 16.8 23.4 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 3.9 3.6 6.4 -2.3 19.3 25.6 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -1.1 -1.1 2.4 -2.2 21.8 27.8 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 86 14 0 100 3.3 2.5 5.7 -2.8 14.1 20.7 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.3 3.0 6.2 -2.3 20.2 26.3 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 3.8 3.5 6.3 -2.2 19.6 26.1 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 3.5 3.2 4.9 -2.4 17.8 24.5 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 3.7 2.9 4.9 -2.9 14.4 20.6 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 3.1 2.5 3.5 -2.7 14.9 21.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 3.3 2.4 5.7 -2.8 15.3 21.4 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 2.0 1.0 4.3 -2.9 11.8 18.3 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 1.9 1.7 3.1 -2.2 20.4 26.6 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 3.9 3.5 6.4 -2.5 18.0 24.1 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------