***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 4.6 6.7 -0.9 38.7 40.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 4.5 6.4 -0.8 40.0 42.1 3.9 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.5 6.4 -0.9 38.5 40.8 6.1 7.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.6 1.3 4.4 -1.0 36.2 38.9 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.6 -1.0 37.5 39.8 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.5 3.1 -0.7 40.2 42.5 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.5 6.3 -0.8 40.2 42.0 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -1.4 -0.4 3.6 -0.7 40.7 42.7 -1.1 0.4 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.8 5.2 -0.9 38.7 40.8 4.3 5.7 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.8 4.0 -0.8 39.9 41.8 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.3 4.4 -0.8 39.1 40.9 3.8 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.4 4.1 -0.8 39.3 41.5 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.2 3.9 3.5 -0.9 37.9 40.5 3.6 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.1 5.1 -0.8 39.9 41.9 4.6 5.9 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.2 4.8 -0.9 37.3 39.8 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.4 5.0 3.9 -0.8 38.3 40.5 4.6 5.9 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.7 6.2 -0.7 41.6 43.3 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 3.6 3.6 -0.8 40.2 42.1 3.0 4.3 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.5 4.6 6.3 -0.8 39.6 41.9 4.0 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -0.2 0.8 2.6 -0.7 42.0 44.0 0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.3 6.0 -1.0 38.1 40.4 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 4.1 6.2 -0.7 41.2 43.2 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.4 6.1 -0.9 38.8 41.2 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.5 4.3 4.9 -0.9 39.1 41.3 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.1 4.8 5.2 -1.0 37.5 39.9 4.5 5.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.7 4.4 3.9 -0.7 39.1 42.1 4.0 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.0 4.9 6.0 -0.9 38.6 40.7 4.4 6.0 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.5 3.1 4.5 -0.9 37.2 39.7 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 3.3 -0.7 41.9 43.5 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.7 6.5 -0.9 39.4 41.6 4.1 5.6 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------