***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 4.4 6.0 0.0 50.0 49.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 1.7 4.0 5.7 0.0 50.2 49.8 2.3 4.0 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.2 6.5 5.8 0.1 51.2 50.5 4.8 6.4 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -0.6 1.5 3.6 -0.1 48.4 49.0 -0.1 1.6 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.8 -0.1 48.9 49.0 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 0.5 2.5 2.2 0.0 49.7 50.3 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.8 5.6 -0.1 49.1 48.8 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -0.2 2.8 0.0 50.2 50.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.1 4.5 0.0 49.9 49.4 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.9 3.4 0.0 50.0 49.8 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.4 3.3 3.6 0.0 49.3 49.3 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.5 2.6 3.3 0.0 49.6 49.5 1.0 2.6 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 0.7 2.6 2.8 -0.1 48.8 49.0 1.1 2.7 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.8 4.8 4.7 0.1 50.7 50.5 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.8 4.0 -0.1 48.7 49.6 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.1 -0.1 48.7 49.0 2.5 4.1 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.0 5.5 0.0 50.0 49.5 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 0.7 2.6 3.0 0.1 50.6 50.7 1.1 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.9 4.2 5.8 0.1 51.1 50.6 2.4 4.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -2.0 0.0 1.9 0.2 52.3 52.5 -1.7 -0.2 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.6 4.0 5.4 0.0 50.5 49.8 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.1 3.4 5.6 0.1 50.8 50.2 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.2 5.7 0.1 51.7 51.1 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.7 4.5 0.1 50.9 50.7 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.3 4.5 0.0 50.1 49.7 2.8 4.3 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.3 3.1 0.1 51.0 50.6 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.8 4.3 5.3 0.0 49.6 49.2 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 0.6 2.4 3.7 -0.1 48.3 49.2 1.1 2.6 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 2.8 2.7 0.1 51.5 51.8 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.3 5.8 0.0 50.1 49.8 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------