***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 19.2 17.7 -0.7 41.0 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 20.6 19.4 17.5 -0.8 40.3 41.0 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 20.7 19.6 17.8 -0.7 41.7 42.4 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.9 12.1 14.9 -1.0 37.3 37.9 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 20.7 20.0 16.6 -0.4 45.3 45.4 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 20.3 20.1 15.7 0.2 52.4 52.1 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 20.2 19.0 17.5 -0.7 40.8 41.5 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 11.1 11.0 15.8 0.2 52.8 52.2 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 20.7 20.0 17.5 -0.3 46.4 46.5 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 20.3 20.0 16.5 0.0 50.3 50.1 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 20.8 20.2 16.7 -0.2 47.9 47.8 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 20.4 20.1 16.4 0.1 51.2 50.8 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 21.1 21.2 17.0 0.4 54.6 54.0 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 21.1 20.0 16.9 -0.7 42.1 42.6 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 17.8 18.3 15.9 -1.3 33.0 33.9 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 21.6 21.2 16.7 0.0 49.4 49.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 19.9 19.0 17.4 -0.5 43.7 44.1 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 19.5 19.2 15.9 0.1 50.8 50.4 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 20.4 19.3 17.6 -0.7 40.8 41.4 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 16.7 16.9 14.6 0.6 56.4 55.5 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 20.6 19.7 17.8 -0.5 43.5 43.9 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 20.7 19.7 17.3 -0.6 42.5 42.9 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 20.8 19.8 17.6 -0.6 42.0 42.6 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 20.8 20.0 17.0 -0.4 45.7 45.9 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 20.0 19.1 16.5 -0.7 41.7 42.2 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 20.9 21.1 16.6 0.6 57.7 56.6 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 20.4 19.4 17.3 -0.6 42.2 42.8 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 17.9 18.5 15.5 -1.1 36.0 36.7 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 15.8 15.7 15.6 0.4 54.1 53.4 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.3 19.1 17.6 -0.8 39.8 40.6 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------