***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 16.7 15.4 -1.5 31.2 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.8 15.5 -1.3 34.1 37.5 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.5 15.9 15.6 -1.4 33.0 36.4 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 7.9 8.0 13.5 -1.8 26.1 31.3 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 15.1 15.7 14.1 -1.6 30.6 34.9 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 14.3 14.9 12.8 -1.6 30.1 35.4 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.5 15.4 -1.3 33.8 37.3 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.5 7.2 13.5 -1.1 36.1 40.1 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 15.4 16.0 14.7 -1.4 33.1 36.8 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.4 15.9 14.0 -1.2 35.6 39.3 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.8 14.1 -1.4 32.7 36.9 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.5 14.1 -1.3 34.4 38.6 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.2 13.7 -1.3 33.8 38.5 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.1 16.8 15.0 -1.1 37.7 40.6 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 14.5 14.3 13.5 -2.0 22.8 28.8 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 15.7 16.4 13.8 -1.5 31.3 36.0 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.0 15.6 15.4 -1.1 36.7 39.7 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.4 15.6 13.8 -1.0 38.3 41.8 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.8 15.7 -1.2 34.6 37.8 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.1 12.2 -0.8 40.6 44.4 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 15.3 15.8 15.1 -1.5 31.6 35.4 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.2 15.4 -1.0 36.8 39.6 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.2 15.7 -1.2 35.8 38.8 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.6 16.5 14.9 -1.1 36.7 39.9 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.9 15.1 14.0 -1.6 29.3 33.8 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 15.4 16.2 13.9 -1.0 37.5 41.8 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 15.3 15.6 14.8 -1.5 31.0 35.1 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 14.7 14.7 13.7 -1.9 24.9 30.4 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.2 13.2 -0.8 40.5 43.9 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.6 15.6 -1.4 33.1 36.6 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------