***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 15.0 15.0 -0.2 47.8 48.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.6 15.4 14.8 -0.2 47.8 48.6 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 13.8 16.0 15.2 -0.1 48.7 49.3 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.0 9.1 13.2 -0.3 46.5 47.0 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 13.8 16.1 13.7 -0.1 48.6 48.9 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.9 12.9 0.1 51.2 51.5 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 13.6 15.4 14.7 -0.2 47.7 48.5 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 7.7 13.0 0.0 49.9 50.4 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.9 16.5 14.4 0.0 49.7 49.9 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 13.6 15.9 13.6 0.0 49.8 50.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.1 16.4 13.7 0.0 49.7 49.9 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 13.8 16.1 13.7 0.0 50.2 50.5 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.8 13.4 0.1 50.9 51.2 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 13.8 16.4 14.5 0.0 49.5 50.2 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.7 13.1 -0.4 45.3 46.0 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.3 13.5 0.0 49.8 50.0 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.1 14.5 -0.1 48.7 49.4 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 12.7 15.1 13.3 0.0 49.6 50.5 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.4 15.5 15.0 -0.2 48.3 49.0 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 10.4 12.8 11.4 -0.1 49.3 50.3 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.9 16.1 14.8 -0.1 48.9 49.3 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.6 14.7 -0.1 48.5 49.2 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 13.6 15.9 15.2 -0.1 49.2 49.7 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.9 16.5 14.4 0.0 49.7 50.3 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 13.2 15.1 13.6 -0.2 47.6 48.2 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.6 13.5 0.2 52.8 52.7 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.7 15.7 14.3 -0.2 47.6 48.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.9 13.3 -0.3 46.5 46.9 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.3 11.9 12.6 0.0 49.8 50.7 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 13.4 15.4 14.9 -0.2 47.7 48.4 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------