***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 14.6 13.3 0.4 54.3 52.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 13.2 0.4 54.7 53.6 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.0 13.6 0.5 56.1 54.1 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.1 11.3 0.1 51.4 50.2 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.7 12.0 0.4 54.6 52.9 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.3 11.0 0.5 55.4 53.9 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.4 13.0 0.3 54.0 53.1 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.2 11.4 0.7 57.5 56.0 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 13.2 16.2 12.7 0.6 56.6 54.4 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 15.9 15.9 12.0 0.7 57.5 55.6 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.2 12.0 0.6 56.3 54.4 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.9 12.0 0.7 57.4 55.8 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.2 16.3 11.7 0.7 57.5 55.9 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.7 16.5 13.0 0.7 58.2 56.1 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 12.1 14.0 11.3 0.0 49.7 48.7 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.8 11.8 0.5 55.6 54.0 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.9 12.9 0.4 54.7 53.7 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.8 15.1 11.8 0.8 58.4 56.7 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.2 13.5 0.5 55.8 54.2 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.5 13.2 10.0 0.7 57.7 57.0 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 16.0 15.8 13.1 0.5 55.6 53.6 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.9 13.1 0.5 55.8 54.4 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 12.7 15.5 13.7 0.6 57.4 55.2 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.0 16.5 13.0 0.8 58.2 56.0 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.6 11.8 0.3 52.9 51.7 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 11.7 0.8 58.5 57.0 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.3 12.6 0.3 53.5 52.4 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.3 14.7 11.5 0.1 51.1 49.9 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 12.5 11.1 0.8 58.5 57.2 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.8 13.3 0.4 54.7 53.4 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------