***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 16.4 15.4 -0.5 41.0 43.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 17.2 16.4 15.2 -0.5 41.8 43.8 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.7 16.9 15.5 -0.4 42.9 44.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.3 9.7 13.2 -0.8 36.0 38.9 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 14.1 -0.4 42.8 44.6 16.4 17.3 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.7 13.1 -0.2 46.5 47.3 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.2 15.2 -0.5 41.5 43.6 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.6 13.4 0.0 49.2 49.7 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.2 14.8 -0.3 45.3 46.8 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.0 14.0 -0.1 48.1 49.0 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.2 14.1 -0.3 45.6 46.9 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.0 14.0 -0.1 48.0 48.7 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.7 14.0 0.0 49.5 49.7 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.4 14.8 -0.3 45.6 47.3 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 15.3 15.5 13.5 -0.9 31.8 35.3 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.7 18.0 13.9 -0.3 45.5 46.6 17.2 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 16.5 16.0 15.0 -0.3 44.1 45.8 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.2 13.7 0.0 49.3 50.1 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.2 16.5 15.4 -0.4 42.7 44.7 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.1 12.1 0.1 51.8 51.9 13.0 13.9 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.7 16.9 15.2 -0.4 43.0 44.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 17.3 16.6 15.1 -0.3 44.0 45.8 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.5 16.8 15.6 -0.3 44.6 46.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.4 14.8 -0.2 46.8 48.1 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.1 14.0 -0.6 39.9 42.3 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.5 13.9 0.2 52.9 52.4 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.6 14.7 -0.5 40.9 43.0 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 15.5 15.9 13.5 -0.8 34.8 37.8 15.8 16.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 13.1 0.1 51.4 51.7 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.0 16.3 15.4 -0.5 41.2 43.4 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------