***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 9999.0 0.4 3.9 28.6 29.2 21.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.0 3.5 25.5 24.4 19.4 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.1 3.6 4.9 36.0 32.9 26.1 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.3 4.6 5.0 31.1 29.3 24.0 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.8 5.7 37.2 34.1 27.2 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 4.0 4.8 6.3 36.6 34.8 27.2 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 1.8 1.5 3.4 24.5 23.0 17.5 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 7.7 11.6 9.6 55.5 44.9 37.1 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.0 4.4 6.0 41.1 36.8 29.2 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.5 5.7 9.0 53.8 43.1 35.4 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.7 3.8 6.8 43.8 38.5 30.9 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.3 5.1 7.4 47.0 41.7 33.8 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.3 5.3 6.8 40.1 37.0 29.9 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.7 8.8 51.5 39.7 33.6 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.6 1.7 4.0 24.0 25.0 20.3 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.8 3.3 6.1 37.9 34.8 28.4 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.2 2.9 21.6 21.2 16.6 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 8.3 11.1 62.2 46.7 38.8 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.5 4.1 29.4 27.5 22.2 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 10.4 14.3 66.3 49.4 42.2 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 3.5 4.6 5.0 35.7 34.0 26.3 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.1 1.6 3.6 25.2 24.4 19.7 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.6 2.9 5.3 37.4 32.9 26.8 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.6 5.5 8.5 53.2 41.8 34.5 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 2.5 2.5 4.1 26.9 25.2 20.7 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.9 7.4 42.3 38.5 31.9 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 1.8 1.7 3.7 25.6 25.1 19.9 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 1.8 1.9 4.9 29.8 28.8 23.7 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.0 12.4 12.7 67.1 48.9 41.3 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 2.2 2.2 3.9 27.9 26.3 20.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------