***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 9999.0 6.2 5.7 51.2 41.8 26.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.0 5.3 7.5 68.3 50.3 31.5 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.0 4.1 6.4 57.0 44.4 29.0 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 2.0 4.0 6.3 48.3 40.0 28.1 2.7 6.2 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.0 3.7 6.6 49.9 39.6 27.8 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 3.7 7.5 50.4 39.4 29.9 2.8 5.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.0 5.1 7.2 64.4 49.1 30.1 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 3.9 7.3 8.6 59.6 45.7 33.0 4.5 8.5 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.5 4.5 6.6 51.0 40.7 28.5 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.5 6.4 8.0 54.8 42.8 30.8 4.2 8.2 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 3.0 5.7 7.0 55.5 43.4 30.1 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.1 7.5 62.0 47.0 33.0 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.6 4.5 7.4 54.9 43.3 31.2 2.8 5.8 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.8 9.1 8.8 67.5 48.6 34.3 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.6 2.9 5.8 44.0 40.2 28.5 1.8 4.8 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 2.7 4.7 6.9 55.5 43.9 30.8 3.1 5.7 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.9 5.3 8.0 71.5 52.6 32.1 2.4 4.8 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.1 9.2 57.6 45.0 33.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.6 6.4 7.6 69.4 50.4 32.3 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.7 11.4 54.6 43.9 33.5 3.4 7.4 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.1 3.8 5.8 49.8 41.0 27.8 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.4 6.4 8.8 77.4 54.2 34.1 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.8 6.4 7.8 70.4 50.1 33.1 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.7 8.2 60.9 45.7 32.3 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 1.9 3.5 6.1 48.8 39.3 27.1 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.5 7.0 55.7 46.6 34.1 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.2 4.1 6.2 51.5 41.6 27.4 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.3 4.2 6.3 49.6 41.7 29.4 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 5.1 8.7 9.9 57.7 44.9 34.3 5.3 10.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.3 5.3 7.0 63.3 47.8 30.2 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------