***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 7.1 8.7 71.7 55.4 41.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.4 9.5 87.6 61.0 43.6 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 9.7 8.3 72.0 55.7 42.5 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.3 9.6 74.2 57.4 43.2 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.8 8.9 70.5 56.2 43.2 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.7 11.1 86.2 60.4 45.2 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.7 9.6 84.9 59.5 42.0 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.9 10.7 80.0 58.8 45.2 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.9 8.7 67.4 55.0 43.4 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 10.1 9.9 73.2 56.5 44.6 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.4 8.4 73.0 57.4 43.5 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.3 8.1 8.8 79.2 59.1 44.1 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.3 9.6 82.2 59.6 44.6 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.8 10.7 78.2 59.0 46.0 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.8 9.8 75.5 57.4 42.3 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.1 8.8 77.3 58.5 44.6 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.3 9.5 87.2 61.4 43.2 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.5 11.6 78.5 57.7 46.2 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.7 9.2 86.1 60.9 44.4 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.4 17.1 89.8 61.4 47.4 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.5 8.2 65.6 53.6 41.2 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.9 10.1 10.0 90.3 62.9 45.3 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.8 12.4 9.1 81.1 59.8 44.5 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.2 9.8 74.3 57.3 45.6 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.3 10.0 74.8 56.9 42.7 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.3 9.7 87.9 61.6 44.4 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.9 76.4 57.0 42.4 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.5 9.2 74.5 57.6 43.5 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.5 13.7 84.2 59.7 46.9 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 9.1 83.0 59.1 42.7 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------