***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 4.1 9.3 80.4 56.9 42.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 5.2 9.3 79.8 55.9 41.4 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.4 9.7 79.7 56.4 42.5 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 5.1 9.9 77.8 55.2 41.2 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.3 9.7 78.7 55.6 41.2 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.7 10.2 73.3 53.9 40.6 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.3 80.6 56.6 42.8 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.8 10.4 76.7 52.8 40.5 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.2 9.9 79.0 55.9 41.6 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.2 10.5 77.5 53.6 40.8 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 1.8 4.2 9.2 78.5 56.0 41.6 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.9 9.2 77.4 54.9 40.8 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.0 4.7 9.9 77.3 55.6 41.1 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.9 11.4 78.0 54.8 41.3 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.7 3.9 9.6 74.0 55.5 41.4 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.7 4.2 9.4 78.7 56.6 42.1 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.2 5.7 9.0 78.6 55.3 42.0 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.1 11.6 75.7 51.7 40.0 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.3 9.5 79.8 55.9 41.2 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.3 13.7 74.7 50.4 40.6 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.3 5.7 9.9 82.9 57.5 42.9 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.6 6.9 9.8 82.8 56.9 42.0 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.6 10.0 80.0 56.0 41.5 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.6 10.9 77.2 54.0 41.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.9 10.7 83.4 56.8 42.7 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.3 9.5 74.3 54.6 41.0 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.9 10.3 82.9 57.2 42.9 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.2 9.5 75.4 55.4 41.3 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.3 12.3 74.4 50.7 39.5 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.2 5.2 9.3 79.5 56.2 41.7 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------