***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 14.4 27.7 56.9 33.2 31.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 16.4 20.1 29.8 63.1 35.8 32.8 18.5 29.4 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 19.2 23.2 29.3 60.3 36.2 33.3 21.0 33.9 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 23.0 25.2 30.7 56.2 32.0 30.3 25.8 39.7 56.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 20.9 22.8 30.9 57.7 32.3 30.9 23.2 34.1 46.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 15.5 17.6 35.0 59.6 30.9 30.2 18.8 30.0 43.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.8 18.5 29.5 61.5 34.6 32.0 17.6 27.0 38.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 29.8 34.0 39.3 66.9 36.8 35.3 30.8 45.7 63.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 20.1 21.7 31.2 58.8 33.3 31.7 21.5 32.7 46.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 27.9 31.1 37.3 64.1 35.3 33.8 29.5 41.7 55.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 18.6 20.8 31.4 61.2 33.8 32.3 20.3 31.2 44.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 17.4 20.3 32.9 64.7 36.1 34.3 18.4 29.9 44.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 18.5 21.0 33.6 61.4 33.1 31.9 21.0 33.1 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 33.6 40.7 39.7 68.0 38.4 35.7 35.6 53.7 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 14.1 14.2 29.2 52.2 29.0 27.4 16.2 27.3 41.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 15.8 18.0 31.3 60.1 32.8 31.4 18.2 28.9 42.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 15.0 18.4 29.4 62.5 35.5 32.5 17.0 26.7 38.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 29.4 33.4 43.4 68.0 37.7 35.8 30.0 42.9 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 21.2 26.5 30.4 64.1 37.0 33.7 23.6 36.9 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 35.0 39.7 56.4 70.8 39.6 37.6 35.3 47.4 61.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 22.1 25.2 28.9 57.8 34.1 31.8 24.5 36.1 49.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 21.3 26.5 32.1 66.2 38.0 34.3 23.5 34.5 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.7 28.2 32.2 65.9 38.9 35.2 23.8 37.3 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 28.8 33.3 37.4 66.0 37.7 35.2 29.2 44.8 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 15.7 18.1 30.9 57.4 32.3 30.5 18.7 31.2 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 21.1 24.2 33.6 62.4 34.7 32.8 23.0 34.4 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 16.3 19.3 30.2 57.9 32.6 30.6 19.5 30.1 43.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 14.7 16.2 29.9 55.4 31.1 29.3 17.3 26.9 38.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 43.1 49.3 48.7 70.4 39.4 37.3 43.6 59.3 77.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 16.2 19.5 29.3 61.5 35.0 32.3 18.4 29.3 43.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------