***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.7 9.2 -0.5 41.8 42.4 7.0 8.4 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.9 7.3 8.3 -1.1 34.2 36.1 7.2 8.5 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.8 9.8 9.4 -0.6 40.8 41.7 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.0 7.1 0.0 50.3 49.6 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.1 7.5 8.2 -0.1 48.2 48.0 6.4 7.6 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.2 6.2 0.2 53.7 52.9 5.9 7.0 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.1 7.7 8.4 -0.9 36.4 38.0 7.4 8.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.9 6.0 -0.1 47.7 48.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.1 7.8 -0.5 40.7 42.1 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.0 6.5 -0.3 43.9 44.9 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.3 7.7 7.7 -0.2 46.2 46.6 6.8 7.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.0 7.0 0.1 52.2 51.5 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.7 7.2 0.2 54.0 53.0 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.6 7.9 7.3 -0.8 36.4 38.3 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.6 8.8 -0.2 46.6 46.7 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.9 7.4 0.1 52.7 51.9 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.3 7.8 8.0 -1.1 34.1 35.9 7.7 8.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.0 6.0 -0.3 44.3 45.0 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 7.0 7.4 8.4 -1.1 33.5 35.5 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.5 4.9 -0.1 48.3 48.7 2.5 3.6 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.4 8.9 -0.4 43.4 44.0 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.2 6.6 8.3 -1.1 32.4 34.5 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.7 6.9 8.5 -1.1 32.8 34.7 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.2 7.5 -0.6 39.4 40.7 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.1 8.9 -0.4 44.3 44.5 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.4 7.1 0.6 61.1 58.9 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.9 9.0 -0.4 44.3 44.5 6.9 8.4 9.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.1 7.6 0.0 50.3 49.7 6.2 7.1 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.1 5.3 -0.4 42.4 43.6 5.5 6.6 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.7 8.8 -0.9 36.7 38.2 7.5 8.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------