***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.8 9.9 0.7 58.8 56.7 4.7 6.1 7.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.4 9.1 0.3 53.9 52.9 4.7 6.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.9 9.7 0.5 57.0 55.3 7.2 8.4 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 4.9 4.8 7.5 1.2 66.8 63.0 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 8.0 0.8 61.1 58.5 3.9 5.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.7 5.9 0.9 63.1 60.8 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.3 9.0 0.3 53.5 52.6 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.7 5.7 0.5 57.0 55.8 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 7.8 0.5 57.8 55.9 5.0 6.3 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.5 6.3 0.5 56.8 55.5 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.1 7.2 0.5 57.7 55.9 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 6.6 0.6 58.9 57.1 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.6 6.2 0.5 57.5 56.3 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.6 7.3 0.1 51.7 51.5 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.2 8.7 1.0 66.1 62.4 5.0 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.2 6.8 0.7 60.4 58.3 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.2 8.7 0.2 52.9 52.1 4.9 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.4 5.7 0.4 55.5 54.7 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.7 6.5 9.1 0.3 53.8 52.9 4.9 6.2 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.1 1.9 4.4 0.4 54.8 54.7 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.7 9.1 0.6 58.6 56.6 4.6 6.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.5 8.7 0.1 51.7 51.3 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.3 9.0 0.2 52.7 52.1 4.8 6.1 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.9 7.4 0.3 54.3 53.4 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.4 9.2 0.9 62.0 59.2 5.0 6.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.0 6.1 0.7 60.0 58.5 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.4 9.5 0.7 59.6 57.3 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.7 7.6 1.1 66.2 62.7 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.5 5.1 0.2 53.1 53.1 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.8 9.4 0.4 55.1 53.9 5.0 6.4 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------