***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 20.4 20.9 18.7 0.8 60.2 58.6 18.6 20.0 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 20.5 20.0 18.0 -0.1 48.5 48.9 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 20.6 20.5 18.6 0.3 53.9 53.5 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 15.1 15.3 16.2 1.9 71.9 68.8 11.7 13.2 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 20.7 21.1 17.3 0.9 59.8 58.7 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 21.3 21.2 16.4 1.4 66.0 64.2 18.5 19.9 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 20.1 19.6 17.8 -0.2 47.5 47.9 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 11.1 11.3 16.0 0.8 58.0 57.6 9.5 10.8 11.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 20.7 20.9 18.1 0.7 57.6 56.8 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 20.3 20.7 16.9 0.9 59.9 58.9 18.6 19.9 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 20.8 21.1 17.9 0.7 58.0 57.3 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 20.4 20.6 16.8 0.6 57.1 56.7 18.6 20.0 21.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 21.1 21.2 17.5 0.4 54.9 54.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 21.0 20.7 17.7 0.1 50.7 51.1 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 21.0 21.2 18.6 1.7 70.5 67.6 18.3 19.6 20.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 21.6 21.9 17.4 0.8 59.1 58.2 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 19.9 19.2 17.3 -0.4 45.7 46.3 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 19.5 19.7 16.2 0.7 57.3 56.8 17.9 19.2 20.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 20.4 19.9 18.2 -0.2 48.2 48.6 18.7 20.0 21.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.9 14.7 0.7 57.2 57.1 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 20.5 20.6 18.6 0.5 55.9 55.3 18.8 20.2 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 20.6 19.9 17.4 -0.4 44.8 45.6 18.9 20.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 20.7 20.1 18.2 -0.3 46.6 47.3 19.1 20.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 20.7 20.7 17.8 0.4 54.0 54.0 18.9 20.3 21.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 20.0 20.4 17.7 1.0 61.6 59.8 18.5 19.7 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 20.9 20.9 16.1 0.3 54.1 53.7 19.4 20.6 21.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 20.3 20.7 18.1 0.7 59.0 57.6 18.7 20.0 21.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 21.5 21.6 17.4 1.8 71.1 68.3 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 15.8 15.9 15.7 0.5 55.4 55.4 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 20.2 19.9 18.2 0.1 50.8 50.8 18.5 19.9 21.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------