***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.6 18.5 1.4 65.4 61.6 15.4 17.1 18.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.0 18.1 0.7 58.2 56.3 15.7 17.2 18.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.1 18.5 18.6 0.9 60.1 57.8 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 12.2 12.7 16.0 2.0 71.1 67.0 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.8 17.0 1.2 62.6 60.1 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 19.0 18.6 15.9 1.5 65.0 62.1 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.6 17.7 18.0 0.8 58.7 56.5 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.8 15.9 1.1 60.8 58.3 6.8 8.7 10.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 18.3 18.8 17.7 1.0 61.0 58.7 16.0 17.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.9 18.4 16.7 1.2 61.6 59.0 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.6 17.3 1.0 60.3 58.3 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 17.8 18.2 16.6 1.0 60.6 58.3 15.4 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.8 16.9 0.9 59.3 57.7 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.4 17.3 0.5 54.6 53.5 16.3 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 18.2 18.4 17.7 2.0 72.1 67.8 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.5 17.0 1.1 61.5 59.3 16.6 18.3 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.3 17.5 0.6 56.5 54.6 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.6 16.2 1.0 59.8 57.3 15.1 16.7 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.7 18.2 0.6 57.0 55.5 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 15.1 14.3 0.9 59.2 57.2 12.2 14.1 15.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.6 18.2 1.0 61.2 58.8 15.9 17.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.8 17.4 0.4 54.4 53.1 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.8 18.2 0.4 54.5 53.6 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.5 18.6 17.6 0.8 58.1 56.0 16.1 17.8 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 17.4 18.5 17.4 1.6 67.2 63.3 15.5 17.0 18.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.0 18.5 16.1 1.0 61.0 59.0 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.0 19.0 18.1 1.4 66.1 62.0 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 18.9 19.1 16.8 1.9 70.1 66.4 15.5 17.2 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.0 15.5 0.8 57.7 56.0 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.0 18.3 0.9 59.9 57.6 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------