***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 13.2 16.2 16.2 0.5 55.9 54.7 13.7 15.6 17.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.4 15.9 16.0 0.2 52.3 52.4 13.9 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 13.8 16.4 16.4 0.2 52.8 52.6 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.5 14.1 0.8 59.5 57.1 7.5 9.5 11.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 14.0 16.6 14.7 0.3 53.4 53.5 14.4 16.2 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 13.7 16.2 13.6 0.4 54.6 53.9 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.4 15.9 16.0 0.2 52.8 52.8 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 7.7 13.7 0.0 50.4 51.6 5.9 7.7 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 14.1 16.8 15.2 0.2 52.3 52.6 14.6 16.5 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.7 16.1 14.4 0.1 51.4 52.1 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.1 16.7 14.8 0.2 52.0 52.7 14.5 16.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 13.8 16.2 14.5 0.1 51.1 52.2 14.3 16.1 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 14.3 16.9 14.0 0.2 51.9 52.9 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.2 15.1 -0.2 48.2 49.7 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.2 14.9 1.1 63.2 59.3 13.6 15.1 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 14.9 17.7 14.5 0.3 53.7 53.7 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 13.2 15.4 15.7 0.1 51.7 52.2 13.6 15.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.9 15.2 14.2 0.0 50.0 51.1 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.3 15.9 16.2 0.1 51.4 51.8 13.8 15.7 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.7 12.0 -0.1 48.8 50.8 11.0 12.9 14.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.0 16.5 15.8 0.3 53.1 53.0 14.4 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 13.6 15.9 15.6 0.1 51.0 51.8 14.0 15.8 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.9 16.3 0.0 49.5 50.5 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.1 16.6 15.2 0.0 50.2 51.0 14.6 16.5 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.3 16.1 14.8 0.6 57.1 55.6 13.6 15.4 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 14.4 16.5 13.8 0.1 51.5 53.1 14.7 16.3 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.7 16.7 15.7 0.6 56.8 55.3 14.1 16.0 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.3 14.5 0.9 60.0 57.3 13.6 15.3 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.5 11.8 13.4 -0.1 48.7 50.6 10.0 12.0 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 13.2 15.9 16.1 0.3 53.2 53.0 13.8 15.6 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------