***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 12.7 15.7 14.6 0.6 57.3 55.0 13.0 14.9 16.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.8 14.4 0.4 54.9 53.6 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.1 15.9 14.8 0.4 55.1 53.5 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.9 10.1 12.4 0.7 59.1 56.1 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.0 15.9 13.2 0.5 56.3 54.3 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.3 15.4 12.4 0.6 56.2 54.6 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.2 14.5 14.4 0.4 55.1 53.7 12.5 14.1 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.0 12.4 0.4 54.8 53.8 6.0 7.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.1 16.1 13.8 0.5 56.1 54.2 13.5 15.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.8 15.7 13.1 0.5 55.6 54.1 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.0 16.1 13.4 0.5 55.4 53.8 13.4 15.5 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.7 15.7 13.1 0.4 55.0 53.9 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.0 12.7 0.5 55.2 54.2 13.5 15.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.4 15.8 13.8 0.3 53.3 52.7 13.2 15.4 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.0 13.0 0.8 60.3 56.7 12.4 14.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 13.8 16.8 13.1 0.5 56.2 54.5 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.9 14.1 0.3 54.2 53.2 12.0 13.5 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.8 14.6 12.9 0.4 54.6 53.7 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 14.6 0.3 54.3 53.2 12.9 14.6 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.9 10.9 0.4 54.3 53.8 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.1 15.9 14.3 0.5 56.1 54.2 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.7 14.0 0.3 53.8 53.1 12.6 14.3 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.0 14.7 0.2 53.0 52.2 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.4 16.0 13.8 0.4 54.2 53.1 13.5 15.5 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.0 15.1 13.2 0.6 58.1 55.5 12.6 14.3 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 12.5 0.5 55.7 54.9 13.3 15.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.8 14.1 0.6 58.0 55.4 13.2 15.0 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.5 12.7 0.7 59.3 56.2 12.6 14.5 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.9 12.2 0.4 54.0 53.4 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.9 14.5 0.4 55.4 53.8 12.7 14.4 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------