***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 18.0 17.7 17.0 0.8 64.0 60.9 15.9 16.9 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.1 16.6 0.3 55.0 54.6 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 16.2 17.8 17.1 0.5 58.1 56.6 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.9 14.7 1.3 72.1 67.0 9.5 10.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.4 18.0 15.6 0.7 61.9 59.3 16.4 17.3 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 18.0 17.7 14.6 1.0 65.5 62.3 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.6 16.9 16.5 0.3 55.1 54.7 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.1 14.5 0.6 59.1 57.5 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.9 18.1 16.2 0.6 60.0 57.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 18.2 17.7 15.3 0.7 60.7 58.5 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.0 15.9 0.6 59.6 57.8 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 15.9 17.6 15.2 0.6 58.9 57.4 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 16.5 18.2 15.3 0.5 58.0 56.9 16.7 17.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.5 17.8 16.0 0.2 52.6 52.6 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.4 16.0 1.4 73.2 67.9 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 19.3 18.9 15.5 0.7 61.3 59.1 17.2 18.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.4 16.1 0.2 52.9 53.1 15.4 16.2 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.1 16.8 14.9 0.5 58.3 56.8 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.1 16.8 0.2 53.9 53.7 15.9 16.9 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.4 13.0 0.5 57.5 56.6 13.0 13.9 14.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.8 16.7 0.6 59.7 57.7 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.0 16.1 0.1 51.3 51.8 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 16.0 17.2 16.8 0.1 51.2 51.6 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 16.4 17.9 16.1 0.4 56.3 55.3 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 17.5 17.4 15.8 0.9 65.9 62.2 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 18.4 17.8 14.6 0.5 58.4 57.4 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.9 16.5 0.8 64.5 61.2 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.7 17.9 15.3 1.3 71.7 66.8 15.8 16.7 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.3 14.2 0.4 56.1 55.3 11.9 13.0 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.7 17.1 16.8 0.4 57.1 56.0 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------