***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.0 11.0 85.9 61.3 51.0 2.2 5.5 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.5 10.2 88.7 61.9 53.4 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.1 9.9 78.6 58.6 48.0 3.6 8.0 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.0 10.7 11.7 62.6 51.2 40.7 5.3 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.2 11.3 75.4 56.8 45.1 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.8 14.5 83.1 59.4 50.3 4.4 9.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 9.8 10.6 91.9 63.0 54.1 2.9 6.0 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.3 15.6 13.4 72.7 54.5 44.3 7.7 13.6 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.0 11.3 75.6 57.1 45.7 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.4 12.4 73.1 54.9 44.4 3.3 7.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.1 11.9 74.0 56.2 44.6 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.5 12.9 75.3 56.4 46.0 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.4 14.2 78.5 58.3 48.6 4.3 9.1 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.1 13.8 12.7 83.7 59.2 49.2 4.1 9.3 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 3.0 5.7 10.3 54.9 49.3 37.3 2.7 5.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.2 13.1 76.2 57.3 46.8 3.0 6.9 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.6 10.9 97.2 64.3 54.5 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 12.3 13.0 77.6 56.2 46.1 4.4 9.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.4 11.2 10.0 84.8 60.4 51.8 3.4 7.5 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 12.1 14.2 72.9 53.8 43.4 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.1 10.4 74.1 56.7 46.2 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.3 11.4 96.4 64.0 54.5 2.7 5.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.1 9.5 10.0 80.1 58.7 49.1 2.9 6.7 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.6 11.7 80.9 58.3 47.3 3.3 8.2 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.7 11.7 84.5 60.4 48.9 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.7 14.1 80.2 58.8 50.0 4.6 8.9 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.7 12.1 93.2 63.4 52.6 2.8 6.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.9 5.6 11.4 62.0 51.5 40.6 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 15.9 13.3 76.9 55.5 45.0 6.2 13.0 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.5 9.9 83.1 60.0 51.3 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------