***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.9 13.7 106.1 67.2 50.3 3.2 6.9 12.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.8 12.2 103.0 65.8 49.5 2.7 5.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.8 15.1 14.0 113.6 69.0 52.9 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 16.4 16.8 117.8 70.5 53.9 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.2 13.8 15.5 118.0 70.3 54.0 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.4 10.7 13.7 116.4 69.5 55.0 2.5 5.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.0 12.1 102.6 65.6 49.2 2.9 5.1 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.9 16.2 15.0 113.9 68.9 55.5 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.0 12.6 15.8 118.5 70.3 54.6 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.3 16.3 119.6 70.4 55.5 4.6 8.2 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.8 14.8 121.5 71.1 54.9 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 8.3 11.2 13.5 114.1 69.1 54.7 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.8 13.2 106.3 66.6 51.7 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.1 23.1 17.0 115.2 69.3 55.1 6.5 12.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.5 13.6 17.4 124.4 72.2 53.2 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.8 14.3 118.5 70.2 54.0 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 2.5 8.9 12.7 107.2 67.0 50.0 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.1 14.8 17.4 120.6 70.5 55.6 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 14.1 12.5 104.2 66.3 50.8 3.5 7.8 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.3 14.7 18.6 107.4 66.6 54.9 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.5 15.3 15.0 118.5 70.4 54.1 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.2 13.5 109.7 67.8 52.5 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.2 15.9 13.1 105.7 66.7 52.1 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.9 20.2 16.9 122.7 71.3 56.0 4.1 9.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.0 15.4 108.2 67.7 52.4 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.5 12.0 13.4 105.0 66.3 52.4 3.5 7.0 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 10.3 13.9 103.5 66.4 50.9 2.6 5.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 12.3 16.2 122.1 71.5 53.2 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.2 19.1 17.5 114.5 68.6 55.2 5.9 10.7 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.3 12.5 103.0 65.9 49.4 3.1 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------