***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.9 14.2 95.1 62.6 46.1 2.2 4.5 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.4 12.2 93.0 61.7 46.6 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 7.0 14.2 96.6 63.1 46.1 1.9 4.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.0 14.3 86.5 60.0 44.2 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.4 13.7 89.2 61.0 44.5 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.3 11.9 83.5 58.5 44.3 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.5 12.6 97.5 63.4 48.2 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.6 14.3 90.8 61.0 46.9 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.0 14.3 90.8 61.2 45.1 2.3 4.3 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.6 6.5 14.5 89.2 60.2 46.0 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.1 13.1 90.5 61.2 45.4 1.6 3.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.2 13.1 92.7 62.1 47.0 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.6 13.3 90.9 60.9 45.9 1.9 3.9 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.8 16.0 96.6 63.1 47.1 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.5 4.6 14.3 84.2 59.7 43.5 1.5 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.0 13.1 92.4 61.9 45.9 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.5 12.1 94.9 62.0 48.4 2.0 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.2 15.8 94.4 62.1 48.1 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.6 12.3 92.3 61.4 45.9 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.9 18.4 93.2 61.8 49.3 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.2 6.8 14.8 96.6 63.3 45.7 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.7 8.2 12.5 94.2 61.7 47.3 2.5 5.3 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.9 8.1 12.7 93.1 61.9 45.8 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.4 15.9 99.6 64.2 47.5 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 6.9 15.1 92.5 62.1 45.7 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.9 14.6 97.5 63.8 49.4 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 6.0 14.5 94.7 62.7 46.6 1.8 3.7 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.8 4.9 13.5 86.3 59.9 43.6 1.8 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.6 16.6 95.9 62.3 48.5 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.3 6.4 12.8 93.5 62.1 46.3 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------