***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-03.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 37.9 35.2 48.5 93.4 55.3 48.9 19.1 30.8 45.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 35.0 33.1 44.2 93.4 55.0 49.9 18.5 29.4 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 41.4 39.3 48.7 95.0 56.0 49.8 21.0 33.9 50.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 47.5 41.4 56.0 88.7 52.0 46.7 25.8 39.7 56.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 40.1 37.8 52.8 94.0 55.3 49.8 23.2 34.1 46.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 35.8 34.8 53.6 96.8 56.2 50.1 18.8 30.0 43.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 31.2 31.2 45.1 95.9 56.6 51.2 17.6 27.0 38.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 53.9 49.2 56.1 92.7 53.3 48.7 30.8 45.7 63.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 39.5 37.5 53.4 95.4 56.2 50.6 21.5 32.7 46.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 48.2 45.5 56.5 95.0 55.0 49.9 29.5 41.7 55.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 37.4 35.8 52.9 95.5 56.0 50.4 20.3 31.2 44.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 36.0 33.9 52.2 94.3 55.1 49.9 18.4 29.9 44.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 39.8 35.4 52.1 90.5 52.8 48.0 21.0 33.1 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 62.2 64.9 60.8 100.8 58.9 53.0 35.6 53.7 75.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 33.9 30.2 56.6 90.1 53.8 46.8 16.2 27.3 41.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 34.8 32.7 52.6 94.6 55.4 49.7 18.2 28.9 42.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 31.3 32.8 46.3 99.3 58.6 53.0 17.0 26.7 38.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 50.5 48.9 60.4 99.1 57.2 52.0 30.0 42.9 57.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 44.1 41.3 45.0 93.3 54.7 49.6 23.6 36.9 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 54.2 48.9 67.1 92.1 51.9 48.4 35.3 47.4 61.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 41.8 41.2 51.4 95.5 56.6 50.7 24.5 36.1 49.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 40.4 41.8 49.1 100.4 59.0 53.5 23.5 34.5 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 44.9 42.3 47.5 94.6 55.4 50.0 23.8 37.3 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 52.9 55.9 58.3 102.5 60.1 53.5 29.2 44.8 63.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 37.7 35.9 53.7 93.3 55.1 49.5 18.7 31.2 47.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 39.2 38.7 56.6 95.4 55.6 50.9 23.0 34.4 48.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 36.4 34.9 51.0 95.0 56.2 49.9 19.5 30.1 43.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 32.6 28.5 53.7 89.6 52.7 46.3 17.3 26.9 38.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 68.0 66.2 63.0 98.6 56.5 51.9 43.6 59.3 77.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 35.8 32.6 44.9 92.1 54.3 48.8 18.4 29.3 43.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------