***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 6.8 8.8 0.7 66.2 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.3 8.3 0.5 62.3 60.2 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.7 8.6 0.7 68.2 64.5 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 4.1 3.9 6.5 0.6 66.4 64.1 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.9 5.8 6.8 0.7 68.3 65.2 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 5.2 5.2 5.2 0.8 71.2 66.2 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.3 8.3 0.5 63.4 61.1 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 1.9 1.8 5.6 0.8 70.2 66.0 0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 6.9 6.9 7.4 0.8 71.2 67.0 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.5 6.1 0.8 69.9 65.8 5.1 5.8 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 6.1 6.1 6.5 0.8 70.6 66.5 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.3 6.2 0.9 72.3 67.4 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.7 5.8 0.9 72.3 67.2 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.0 7.3 0.7 69.4 65.2 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 6.5 6.6 7.3 0.8 72.5 68.4 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.0 6.2 0.8 71.7 67.0 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.2 7.9 0.3 58.9 58.1 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 5.3 5.2 5.5 0.7 67.9 64.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.4 8.4 0.6 65.1 62.1 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 2.2 2.0 4.1 0.6 64.2 61.6 0.7 1.4 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.4 8.3 0.8 69.0 65.4 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.5 7.9 0.4 60.9 59.4 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.4 8.4 0.8 70.5 65.7 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.1 7.2 0.8 69.9 65.4 4.8 5.4 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 6.9 6.7 7.4 0.6 65.0 62.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.9 5.9 0.8 70.4 65.9 4.6 5.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.8 8.1 0.6 65.6 62.9 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 5.1 5.1 6.9 0.8 70.6 67.0 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.7 67.9 64.1 3.3 4.1 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 6.8 6.7 8.6 0.6 65.0 62.1 5.3 6.1 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------