***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 7.2 8.4 0.8 61.5 58.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.9 5.9 7.8 0.6 59.9 57.4 3.4 5.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.9 8.2 8.0 0.8 62.0 58.7 5.6 7.1 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 0.4 3.3 5.9 0.6 58.8 57.1 0.7 2.4 4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.1 6.1 0.6 59.6 57.5 2.9 4.3 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.6 4.5 0.7 60.5 58.9 2.6 3.9 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 6.8 5.8 7.8 0.6 59.6 57.1 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.1 4.9 0.8 61.5 59.0 -1.4 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 7.0 6.3 6.7 0.7 60.9 58.1 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.5 5.8 5.4 0.7 60.7 58.0 3.7 5.0 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.4 5.8 0.7 61.1 58.4 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.7 5.5 0.8 62.1 59.3 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.1 5.0 0.7 60.7 58.4 3.2 4.4 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 7.3 6.6 6.7 0.8 62.2 59.1 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.6 6.4 0.7 61.5 58.7 3.7 4.8 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.1 6.3 5.3 0.7 60.6 58.2 4.2 5.5 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.7 7.4 0.5 57.2 55.9 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 5.5 4.7 4.9 0.7 60.3 58.1 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.0 7.9 0.7 61.1 58.0 3.5 5.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 2.5 1.7 3.7 0.7 59.4 58.3 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.6 5.8 7.6 0.8 60.9 58.2 3.4 4.9 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.1 7.4 0.5 57.9 56.4 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.6 6.0 7.8 0.8 62.7 59.0 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 6.5 5.7 6.5 0.8 61.9 58.9 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.7 6.3 6.8 0.7 59.9 57.9 4.0 5.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.8 5.3 0.9 63.4 61.1 3.7 4.8 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 6.4 7.6 0.7 60.8 58.1 3.7 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.2 6.0 0.6 59.9 57.7 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 5.2 4.2 4.5 0.7 60.4 58.4 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 7.2 6.3 8.1 0.7 61.0 58.0 3.7 5.3 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------