***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 17.2 16.6 0.7 65.7 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.2 16.4 0.6 63.7 60.7 15.7 16.5 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.1 16.8 0.8 67.8 63.9 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.4 14.9 0.8 68.2 65.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 18.2 18.1 15.4 0.8 68.0 64.7 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 17.7 17.6 14.2 0.9 67.7 64.4 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.9 16.2 0.5 61.6 59.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 9.4 9.3 14.3 0.7 65.2 62.2 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 18.4 18.3 16.1 0.9 69.0 65.1 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 17.9 17.8 15.0 0.8 66.5 63.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.4 18.4 15.4 0.9 69.5 65.4 16.1 17.2 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 18.0 17.9 15.1 0.9 68.4 64.3 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 18.6 18.5 15.0 0.9 69.0 64.8 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.1 15.8 0.7 63.9 61.2 16.3 17.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.0 17.0 15.5 1.0 72.5 68.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.1 15.2 1.0 70.0 65.8 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.3 16.3 15.7 0.3 56.3 55.9 15.1 15.9 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.7 14.4 0.6 62.2 60.2 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 17.7 17.5 16.6 0.8 66.6 62.6 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.2 12.4 0.4 58.0 57.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 18.2 18.0 16.4 0.8 66.7 63.6 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.0 15.9 0.3 57.2 56.6 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 18.0 17.9 16.8 0.9 69.2 64.4 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.2 15.8 0.7 65.1 62.1 16.2 17.3 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 17.2 17.0 15.3 0.7 64.8 62.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.8 14.5 0.6 63.6 61.1 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 17.8 17.6 15.9 0.6 63.8 61.1 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 17.5 17.5 15.4 1.0 70.7 67.1 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 13.6 0.5 59.4 58.2 11.7 12.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 17.5 17.2 16.6 0.7 65.8 62.1 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------