***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 19.2 18.4 -0.2 46.4 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 18.0 19.2 18.3 -0.3 44.8 45.7 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.2 19.8 18.8 0.1 51.1 50.7 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 13.1 13.1 16.7 0.4 55.4 54.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 20.2 20.1 17.6 0.3 54.4 53.4 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.2 15.7 -0.1 48.1 48.5 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 17.7 18.5 17.9 -0.6 40.8 42.4 17.9 19.2 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 10.5 16.2 0.2 52.9 52.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 20.2 20.2 18.5 0.4 56.1 54.6 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.9 19.7 17.1 0.3 54.5 53.5 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 20.3 20.2 17.6 0.4 55.2 54.0 18.5 19.8 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.7 17.0 0.3 54.3 53.2 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 20.7 20.4 17.1 0.2 52.4 51.7 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.2 17.9 0.1 51.2 50.8 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 19.5 19.9 18.5 0.8 61.3 59.4 17.9 19.1 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 21.0 20.9 17.4 0.3 54.7 53.6 19.3 20.6 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 17.4 18.0 17.4 -0.9 37.0 39.1 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.6 16.2 0.0 50.4 50.2 17.3 18.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 20.1 19.5 18.6 0.0 49.7 49.6 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 15.8 14.4 -0.1 49.1 49.5 14.6 15.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.7 18.7 0.0 50.3 50.0 18.3 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 20.3 19.0 17.7 -0.6 40.6 42.1 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 20.4 20.2 18.9 0.4 55.1 53.9 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.3 19.8 17.8 0.1 50.9 50.5 18.4 19.8 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.9 17.3 -0.3 46.2 46.8 18.0 19.1 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.7 16.0 -0.3 45.6 46.4 18.9 20.0 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.0 19.0 17.7 -0.5 43.3 44.4 18.2 19.5 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 19.7 19.9 17.7 0.6 58.6 57.0 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 14.8 15.5 -0.1 49.1 49.3 13.5 14.9 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.1 18.6 -0.2 47.3 47.6 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------