***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 18.7 17.6 1.2 64.6 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.9 17.3 1.1 62.8 58.2 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.6 17.7 1.3 65.0 59.9 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.9 16.1 1.3 65.2 60.4 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.9 16.4 1.3 64.8 59.9 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 18.8 18.7 15.4 1.6 67.6 62.2 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.7 17.2 1.0 62.4 57.8 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 10.0 15.2 1.2 63.4 58.8 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.7 19.0 16.8 1.3 65.0 60.0 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.3 18.4 15.8 1.2 63.7 59.1 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 19.4 19.1 16.3 1.4 66.0 60.6 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.8 16.1 1.4 65.8 60.3 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 19.7 19.6 16.0 1.6 67.2 61.5 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.7 16.4 1.0 61.2 57.4 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.7 16.5 1.5 68.4 62.9 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 20.2 20.0 16.2 1.5 67.0 61.4 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.1 16.7 0.7 58.5 55.1 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.9 17.5 15.2 1.1 61.3 57.4 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.5 18.0 17.5 1.1 63.7 58.9 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.9 13.2 0.8 58.8 56.0 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.7 17.3 1.3 64.7 59.8 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 17.7 17.7 16.7 0.6 57.5 54.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.7 18.3 17.6 1.2 64.4 59.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 15.9 18.8 16.5 1.2 62.9 58.5 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.3 17.8 16.3 1.2 64.3 59.6 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.8 15.7 1.3 64.5 59.9 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.6 18.5 16.9 1.2 64.0 59.2 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 18.5 18.4 16.5 1.4 66.9 61.7 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 14.1 14.3 0.9 59.5 56.4 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.4 18.0 17.6 1.2 64.2 59.2 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------